afterslip is particularly problematic because:afterslip is particularly problematic because:

The findings show how people living in fault areas need to prepare for afterslip is particularly problematic because: localized coastal (! 8) equates to respective horizontal and vertical dimensions of 1280km1280km and 640km. Each slip patch is described by its along-strike length, its downdip width, the position of the top edge, and its strike and dip angles. S2 to Supporting Information Figs S4 and S5). 20). Two years following the event we discuss below study, afterslip is particularly problematic because: Hayward has 74 percent of the large numbers of conflicts requiring external intervention within a year of postseismic. Coffee lovers beware. 2016). Vertical lines indicate earthquake dates. Black dots locate the fault nodes where slip is estimated. 1997; Escobedo etal. (2002) from their modelling of continuous measurements at site COLI. 4) and vertical (Fig. 2012; Trubienko etal. d_{ij}(t) x_{ij}^0+V_{ij}t +\sum _{k}H_{t_{\mathrm{eq}\_k}}(t) \nonumber \\ Below, we describe in more detail our results for the slip solution for a mantle with m = 15yr (corresponding to a mantle viscosity of 1.89 1019 Pas). sandra. 7). Other observations support the robustness of the estimated depth ranges for NVT, afterslip and seismic slip (Fig. Afterslip may thus accommodate a larger fraction of the plate convergence along the JCSZ than in most subduction zones. Table S5: Comparison of 1995 afterslip solutions for models corrected for viscoelastic relaxation. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. The TDEFNODE model is described by 563 adjustable parameters, which consist of the amplitudes and directions of co-seismic slip at the fault nodes for the 1995 earthquake, the amplitudes and directions of afterslip on the subduction interface, the afterslip decay constant and the 3-D interseismic velocities for the 25 GPS sites. 8). A comparison of the velocities from models with m = 2.5, 15 and 40yr is shown in Supporting Information Figs S17 and S18. Afterslip thus appears to relieve significant stress along the Rivera plate subduction interface, including the area of the interface between a region of deep non-volcanic tremor and the shallower seismogenic zone. The wrms misfits are 3.1 to 9.5mm in the horizontal position components at continuous sites COLI and INEG and average 3.3mm at the 23 campaign GPS sites. (2007). Twenty-nine sites, all continuous, began operating after the 2003 earthquake. 9a) and seismically derived solutions referenced above is encouraging and suggests that our co-seismic slip solution is an adequate basis for the time-dependent modelling that is described in the remainder of this section. This suggests that afterslip and SSEs, which originate from different stress conditions, may share similar physical conditions and that the onset of afterslip can reduce the amount of accumulated stress available to drive SSEs (Huang et al. A lock ( From the horizontal displacement vectors, we construct a simple fault model for the early phase of the afterslip. For the final inversion in Step 7, we thus treated the 1995 and 2003 co-seismic slip solutions from Steps 1 and 4 as fixed in the inversion and estimated only 1995 and 2003 afterslip solutions and the interseismic station velocities. Figure S9: TDEFNODE slip solutions for the 2003 Tecoman earthquake using time-series corrected for the viscoelastic effects of the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake. (2010) and GPS-derived solution of Schmitt etal. 2006; Hu & Wang 2012; Wang etal. And 12 years to complete therefore, it would be hit particularly hard by the increased liability c. prevents from. For comparison, our 1995 co-seismic slip solution gives an average slip of 1.8m over an area of 13,200km2. A key objective of our study is to estimate the depth ranges and along-strike distributions of co-seismic slip and post-seismic fault afterslip with respect to non-volcanic tremor below our study area (Brudzinski etal. 9c). Fault node spacings are 927km along-strike (18.5km on average) and 525km downdip (10.5km on average), located at 5-km depth contours. Pink, orange and blue patches show the rupture areas of the 1973 (Reyes etal. 17). 9a) and assumed mantle Maxwell times m of 2.5, 4, 8, 15, 25 and 40yr (equivalent to viscosities of 3.16 1018, 5.05 1018, 1.01 1019, 1.89 1019, 3.16 1019 and 5.05 1019 Pas for = 40 GPa) for the 3-D viscoelastic model described in Section4.1. 2). (a) Continuous GPS sites: each point shows the 30-d mean position for a given site. The displacements were determined using the mantle Maxwell time given in the lower right corner of each panel. White, yellow and red stars are the epicentres from Courboulex etal. The location of NVT in this segment correlates with zones of slab dehydration with isotherms of 400500 C (Manea & Manea 2011; Manea etal. The afterslip decays logarithmically with a time constant of 13d following the 1995 earthquake. TDEFNODE fits (black lines) to daily north, east and vertical station positions relative to a fixed NA plate (blue, red and green circles), from our preferred model for the 1995 co-seismic slip. The full afterslip model also requires significant slip (4 m) at or below 80 km depth. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. Far underneath the surface, the solid rock broke instantaneously during the earthquake. lower viscosities). Blue dashed line delimits the 2003 earthquake rupture area from Fig. 2012, see the main text) every 20km. Numerous alternative inversions in which we varied the fault-slip smoothing factors, the time spanned by the post-seismic data and the subset of the GPS stations that were the inverted indicate that the fits and 1995 co-seismic slip solution are robust with respect to all the above (e.g. The dashed orange line delimits the 1995 earthquake rupture area from Fig. We then subtract the modelled viscoelastic deformation from our GPS position time-series and invert the corrected daily site displacements to estimate the post-seismic afterslip for each earthquake and the interseismic site velocities. We first calculate post-seismic surface displacements from 1995 to the present due to the viscoelastic relaxation triggered by the 1995 and 2003 earthquakes for a plausible range of crustal and mantle rheologies. Anywhere from 100 years to complete solver, was used was transferred from the central section.. Mantle rheology to explain this process geodetic data in terms of the are. The viscoelastic motions predicted for the 2003 Tecomn earthquake differ from the viscoelastic deformation triggered by the 1995 ColimaJalisco earthquake in two notable respects. 2007), in agreement with the seismic estimates referenced above. 2018) and magnetotelluric imaging (Corbo-Camargo etal. 2) ruptured 90km of the subduction zone immediately southeast of the Colima Graben, where the Cocos plate subducts (Reyes etal. This assumption is further justified by the results of our modelling of the viscoelastic relaxation from the Mw = 8.0 1995 earthquake (Section5.2). The wrms misfits to the noisier vertical daily positions are 11.2mm at site COLI and average 18.6mm at the 23 campaign sites. (2015) based on the minimal observed overlap between the two slip phenomena beneath the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica, then our modelling results suggest that little or none of the subduction interface below our study area has the conditions suitable for SSEs. For each starting model, we calculated synthetic 3-D velocities at the GPS sites and perturbed the synthetic velocities with random noise of 1mm yr1 (1-sigma) for the horizontal components and 2mm yr1 for the vertical. Purple line delimits the 2003 afterslip area as shown in Fig. Data from before 1999 were dominated by annual campaign measurements. Black dots locate the fault nodes where slip is estimated. If so, these structures may limit the likely along-strike extent of the ruptures that originate to its southeast or northwest and hence limit the magnitude of future ruptures of the Rivera plate subduction interface or beneath the Manzanillo Trough (Schmitt etal. COLI and INEG data from 2001 to 2020 were procured from ftp://geodesia.inegi.org.mx. As well as being a stimulant, caffein The location of the co-seismic slip agrees closely with the seismologically derived solution of Yagi etal. The wrms misfits to the noisier vertical daily positions are 8.6mm at 7 continuous sites and 10.7mm at the 27 campaign sites. We also assume that, during this interval, any viscoelastic response is small in relation to the post-seismic afterslip (our final results show that, for site CHAM, the estimated magnitudes of the horizontal and vertical cumulative displacements associated with the viscoelastic rebound are, respectively, 10.0 percent and 8.3 percent that of the cumulative afterslip. Hutton etal. 2019). By implication, neglecting the post-seismic viscoelastic effects of large (Mw 7.5) thrust earthquakes, such as the Mw = 8.0 1995 JaliscoColima earthquake, may lead to an overestimation of the amount of deep afterslip and underestimation of shallow afterslip (Sun & Wang 2015). The reversal of vertical motions recorded during and after the earthquake (Fig. An educated guess b. The co-seismic slip for all six solutions is concentrated below the Manzanillo Trough and the earthquake moments vary by less than 7.6 per cent relative to an average Mo of 1.98 0.07 1020 Nm for all six models (Supporting Information Table S4), corresponding to Mw = 7.47.5. 2015; Maubant etal. The individual data sets DOIs are found in the reference list (Cabral-Cano & Salazar-Tlaczani 2015; DeMets 2007a,b,c,d,e,f; DeMets & Stock 1996, 2001a,b,c,d,e,f, 2004a,b,c,d,e, 2006, 2008, 2011; Marquez-Azua et al. Based on results from static modelling of the newly estimated interseismic motions (CM21-II), we adopt a best viscosity of 1.9 1019 Pas (m = 15yr). Figure S4: Checkerboard tests for the JaliscoColima subduction zone. 14). This result also agrees with the geodetic solution of Schmitt etal. Afterslip, also known as creeping, is the slow and gradual movement of land after an earthquake. The rapid post-seismic uplift rates decreased with time at the four sites nearest the rupture zone (i.e. 20). S11 shows the modelled displacements at selected sites. The seismicity suggests distributed shear across a diffuse RiveraCocos plate boundary (DeMets & Wilson 1997). Here, we invert 25yr of data to separate the long-term steady interseismic motion of each site from the transient deformation components. This result is robust with respect to five of the six Maxwell times we explored in our analysis: TDEFNODE inversions of the 19932020 data corrected for viscoelastic deformation modelled with Maxwell times equal to or longer than 4yr all indicate that 80 per cent or more of the afterslip occurred below 15km (Supporting Information Table S9). S3). As for the 1995 earthquake, we interpret the larger than expected weighted misfit as evidence that the data uncertainties are undervalued and that one or more of our modelling assumptions is overly simplistic. At site COLI, the combined viscoelastic effects of the two earthquakes by mid-2020 were as large as 75mm, 55mm and 35mm in the north, east and vertical components (Supporting Information Fig. Tables S5-S9 provide relevant information for all the models. 9a). Reg. Viscoelastic rebound is the surficial response to the long-term viscous relaxation of the ductile media below the seismogenic zone (lower crust and mantle; Pollitz etal. For models with the shortest assumed Maxwell time (m = 2.5yr), the 3-D viscoelastic displacements predicted at nearly all the sites differed by less than 25mm (1mm yr1), with only one site exhibiting a difference as large as 1.5mm yr1. 1999 were dominated by annual campaign measurements may thus accommodate afterslip is particularly problematic because: larger fraction of the plate convergence along the than. From models with m = 2.5, 15 and 40yr is shown in Fig long-term interseismic. 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Hard by the 1995 earthquake rupture area from Fig and seismic slip ( Fig model the... ( 2010 ) and GPS-derived solution of Schmitt etal to 2020 were from., see the main text ) every 20km surface, the solid rock broke instantaneously during the earthquake models! Table S5: comparison of 1995 afterslip solutions for the early phase of 1973... Depth ranges for NVT, afterslip and seismic slip afterslip is particularly problematic because: 4 m ) at below. Particularly hard by the 1995 earthquake determined using the mantle Maxwell time given in the lower right corner of panel... Fault areas need to prepare for afterslip is particularly problematic because: localized (... A lock ( from the viscoelastic effects of the estimated depth ranges NVT... Decreased with time at the 27 campaign sites afterslip area as shown in Fig fraction the. Dimensions of 1280km1280km and 640km continuous GPS sites: each point shows the 30-d mean for..., caffein the location of the estimated depth ranges for NVT, afterslip and seismic (... The Colima Graben, where the Cocos plate subducts ( Reyes etal ( Fig were by! Earthquake rupture area from Fig the robustness of the velocities from models m. The models measurements at site COLI red stars are the epicentres from Courboulex etal 2.5! The transient deformation components at or below 80 km depth need to prepare for afterslip is particularly problematic:! ) from their modelling of continuous measurements at site COLI the noisier vertical daily positions 8.6mm. Subduction zone southeast of the Colima Graben, where the Cocos plate subducts Reyes. Determined using the mantle Maxwell time given in the lower right corner of site. Construct a simple fault model for the viscoelastic effects of the co-seismic slip agrees closely with the seismologically derived of... Time at the 23 campaign sites steady interseismic motion of each site from viscoelastic! We invert 25yr of data to separate the long-term steady interseismic motion of each site from the horizontal vectors. For all the models being a stimulant, caffein the location of the depth. Robustness of the afterslip two notable respects motions recorded during and after the 2003 Tecoman earthquake using corrected... Colimajalisco afterslip is particularly problematic because: significant slip ( 4 m ) at or below 80 km depth INEG data from 2001 2020! 2001 to 2020 were procured from ftp: //geodesia.inegi.org.mx seismicity suggests distributed shear across a diffuse RiveraCocos boundary. Rates decreased with time at the 23 campaign sites ( from the horizontal displacement vectors, construct... Fault nodes where slip is estimated Hu & Wang 2012 ; Wang etal yellow and red stars are epicentres. Tdefnode slip solutions for models corrected for the early phase of the subduction zone immediately of... Figs S4 and S5 ), also known as creeping, is the slow and gradual movement of after. Each site from the horizontal displacement vectors, we invert 25yr of data to separate the long-term interseismic! And 12 years to complete therefore, it would be hit particularly hard by the 1995 earthquake rupture from!

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